The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) reported Tuesday that El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific.

In May, the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly reached the +0.5°C threshold. Additionally, most climate models suggest there is over an 80 percent probability that this will develop into a full-blown El Niño event, which is likely to persist until early 2027.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific and generally, cooler-than-average sea surface temperature over the Philippine Sea.

El Niño typically increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions across much of the country, raising the risk of dry spells and drought, particularly in vulnerable areas. However, above-normal rainfall conditions may still occur, particularly over the western sections of the Philippines during the Southwest Monsoon season, especially when enhanced by tropical cyclone activity.

Pagasa will continue to closely monitor the ongoing El Niño condition and its associated impacts on climate. Meanwhile, all government agencies and the general public are strongly advised to take appropriate preparedness and response measures to mitigate their potential impacts, particularly in areas vulnerable to heavy rainfall and floods during Habagat season and those areas prone to below-normal rainfall conditions. Pagasa