The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects the balance of payments (BOP) to remain in deficit in 2026–2027, reflecting a challenging global environment of subdued growth, geopolitical tensions, and elevated fuel and transport costs.

For 2026, the overall BOP deficit is projected at $9.2 billion (1.8 percent of GDP), narrowing to $8.5 billion (1.6 percent of GDP) in 2027. These deficits highlight the shock from elevated oil and commodity prices, which continue to weigh on the country’s external position.

The current account deficit is projected at $19.1 billion (3.8 percent of GDP) in 2026 and broadly stable at $19.4 billion (3.6 percent of GDP) in 2027.

Elevated fuel and commodity prices remain the principal driver, but imports growth is expected to compress in the second half of 2026, as firms and households adjust to slower domestic activity and high inflation. Goods exports, led by electronics, provide resilience, though its momentum is likely to moderate as global demand remains uneven.

Inflows from services receipts and remittances will continue to support the external position, but these are not sufficient to fully offset the trade‑driven deficit.

Net financial inflows are projected at $11.4 billion in 2026 and $11.8 billion in 2027, providing partial financing support for the current account deficit. Other investment inflows will be driven particularly by foreign borrowing by the National Government, corporations, and banks. Direct investment remains positive but modest, while portfolio flows are sensitive to global financial conditions.

Gross international reserves are projected to remain above $100 billion in both 2026 and 2027, serving as a critical buffer against external shocks. Alongside services exports and remittances, these reserves will continue to support the economy’s adjustment to external pressures. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas