The tandem of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo scored higher than Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Imee Marcos in the first quarter survey of OCTA Research featuring a hypothetical 2028 president and vice president match-up.

The survey shows the Robredo–Tulfo were backed by 44 percent of adult Filipinos, while 40 percent voted for the Duterte–Marcos tandem, and16 percent remain undecided.

"Although the 4-point lead should be interpreted cautiously, given the survey’s ±3 percent margin of error, the findings nevertheless indicate a significantly more competitive landscape for the tandem entering 2026," it stated.

"The Robredo–Tulfo tandem dominates NCR (61 percent) and Balance Luzon (57 percent) and leads in the Visayas (48 percent versus 40 percent), while the Duterte–Marcos tandem maintains overwhelming dominance in Mindanao (86 percent), which continues to serve as the core geographic anchor of its coalition. The Visayas and Balance Luzon are emerging as critical electoral battlegrounds likely to shape the eventual balance of the race," it added.

OCTA noted that the "results reflect an early-stage hypothetical preference measure and should be interpreted as a snapshot of current public sentiment, not a prediction of electoral outcomes."

"As political conditions evolve—through candidate positioning, alliances, national issues, and campaign dynamics—these preferences may shift significantly," it added.

The survey that was carried out from March 19 to 25, 2026, using face-to-face interviews to a total of 1,200 probability respondents, aged 18 and above, was conducted nationwide. Robina Asido/PHS