The lead of Vice President Sara Duterte over Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo in a third quarter hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup survey has narrowed to seven percentage points, at OCTA Research survey on Wednesday.

It said "Duterte’s numbers show a softening across the three 2026 waves, with her share easing from 46 percent in first quarter to 43 percent in second quarter and 40 percent in third quarter, a cumulative six-point decline that exceeds the ±3% margin of error."

"As a result, the gap between VP Duterte and Mayor Leni Robredo has narrowed in each wave, from 11 points to 9 and now 7," it stated.

It stressed that "Robredo’s national share has stayed within a 33 percent to 35 percent range across the three waves, even as she has said she will not seek national office in 2028."

"The narrowing of the gap therefore reflects lower figures for VP Duterte rather than gains for Mayor Robredo," it added.

OCTA said the seven percentage points is "the narrowest" gap recorded between the two stating that in its "unpublished commissioned surveys in 2025" Duterte led by roughly 20 to 25 points.

It emphasized that the survey that was conducted from September 28 to October 4, through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult respondents aged 18 and above nationwide should be interpreted as a snapshot of current public sentiment and not as a prediction of electoral outcomes. Robina Asido/PHS