Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo lost her lead in the National Capital Region (NCR) over Vice President Sara Duterte with 34 percent but the latter still led the overall tally, according to a result of an early stage survey for the 2028 presidential election conducted by Octa Research on Tuesday.

The survey, conducted from July 4 to 11, with 1,200 respondents showed Duterte leading the race with 43 percent with Robredo getting 34 percent while 22 percent were undecided. Robredo, who was vice president under President Rodrigo Duterte, gained two percentage points from the first quarter.

The survey coincided with the start of Duterte's impeachment trial at the Senate on July 6. Robredo, who lost the battle for the presidency in 2022, had said she will not run for president in 2028 but many organizations want her to run.

"Duterte still leads nationally, but the gap has narrowed to nine points. Nationwide, 43 percent of adult Filipinos say they would vote for Duterte if the May 2028 elections were held today, compared with 34 percent for Robredo — down from an 11-point Duterte lead (46 percent to 35 percent) in Q1 2026," it stated.

"Robredo’s 20-point NCR lead in Q1 narrowed to a near-tie in Q2 (34% to 34%), but Duterte gained only two points there. Most of the apparent movement away from Robredo went into the undecided column, which grew from roughly 15 percent to 32 percent," it added.

Octa noted that "geographic and generational polarization remains structurally unchanged" noting that "Duterte continues to dominate Mindanao and lead the Visayas while Robredo remains strongest in Balance Luzon and among voters 55 and older."

"Age is one of the sharpest dividing lines, with Duterte strongest among 25- to 34-year-olds (61 percent) and Robredo strongest among those 75 and above (61 percent)," the survey stated. Robina Asido/PHS